A large storm system moving east across the region will bring periods of rain, gusty winds, and a low-end threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across Tennessee on Friday. While the severe weather threat remains limited, forecasters are increasingly concerned about flooding as multiple rounds of rain move through the state from early Friday into early Saturday.

The overall chance for severe storms on Friday is low, but a few storms could briefly become strong to severe during the afternoon and early evening hours. If stronger storms develop, damaging straight-line winds would be the primary impact. The tornado threat is very low. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be scattered, with many locations seeing rain without lightning.

The more significant hazard with this system is heavy rainfall. Several waves of rain are expected to move across Tennessee beginning early Friday morning and continuing through early Saturday morning. This prolonged rainfall pattern increases the risk for flash flooding and general flooding, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of rain. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across much of the state, with locally higher amounts possible.

Western Middle Tennessee has the highest chance for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, southern and eastern portions of Middle Tennessee face the greatest flooding threat due to heavier and more persistent rainfall. On the Cumberland Plateau and into East Tennessee, areas from Crossville north to Jamestown and east toward Knoxville are under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Crossville is also under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, while Jamestown and Knoxville remain under a Marginal Risk for flooding.

Timing will be important. Any strong to severe storms are most likely between noon and 6 p.m. Friday. Rain, however, will begin early Friday morning and may continue through early Saturday morning, increasing the potential for flooding issues such as water covering roads, rises on creeks and streams, and localized flash flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Gusty winds are also expected at times, even outside of thunderstorms.

Despite the flooding concerns, this system will bring beneficial, drought-alleviating rainfall across much of Tennessee, as well as parts of southwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Confidence remains low that severe storms will occur, but confidence is higher—at a medium level—that flooding impacts will develop as the rain persists.

Residents are urged to stay weather-aware through Friday and Friday night, monitor updated forecasts, and be prepared for changing conditions, especially if traveling or living in flood-prone areas.