There’s a 90 percent chance a subtropical or tropical cyclone will form in the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, the National Hurricane Center said. The main threat for Florida is heavy rainfall, tornadoes and rip currents. The National Hurricane Center reports the tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined and now has a higher chance of development. Whether the disturbance develops into something more, South Florida will likely see a lot of rain and wind over the next few days. Because this broad surface low-pressure system is battling some high wind shear and interacting with land, most of the convection associated with this system is to the east of the center.

As this disturbance lifts to the north into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and environmental conditions become more favorable for development, there is a 90 percent chance this system could develop into a tropical or sub-tropical depression sometime this weekend in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The European model has forecast rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches through Monday. The GFS model is forecasting rainfall totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches through Monday. The track will determine how much rain will fall.